By Murray Wiseman
Extracted from
Chapter 7 of “Reliability-centered Knowledge”
Having understood,
from Figure 6‑4 (page 87), that the decision to perform CBM flows from a
fundamental analysis of the physical asset’s maintenance requirements, we turn
our attention to the composition of a CBM task. We keep the over-riding
concerns in mind. That is, we elect to conduct only applicable and effective
CBM procedures. Figure 7‑1 portrays three distinct CBM sub-processes, each of
which must satisfy the applicability and effectiveness criteria in order for
CBM to add value to a maintenance program.
Figure
7‑1: CBM sub-processes
Data acquisition is
the first and, one might assert, the easiest of the three CBM
sub-processes to implement. Assisted by advanced sensor, signal transmission,
and storage technologies, we can, without too much effort, implement systems
that collect and store impressive amounts of data. The predictive maintenance
industry has organized[1]
to provide communication standards and protocols endowing their products with
unprecedented capability to share process and condition monitoring data.
Because commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) data acquisition hardware and software
products can be used across a range of industries, data acquisition enjoys more
commercial exposure than do the other sub-processes of CBM. Some maintenance
technology consumers imagine that, once they set up elaborate data acquisition,
storage, and display systems, they will have overcome the major hurdle to
effective CBM. Some pay scant attention to the choice of the data they decide
to collect, adopting a when-in-doubt-collect-it-anyway-it-might-be-useful attitude.
Their data choices are influenced largely by the capabilities of the technology
rather than by a pre-assessment of how well the collected data will reflect an
evolving failure mode.
By way of illustration, there are two important reasons why bearings fail :
Were we to consider
CBM a form of maintenance inspection (rather than a hi-tech maintenance
process), we would demand that monitored data relate clearly to the failure
modes with which we are most concerned. Moreover, from an information
management perspective, we would
require that our CBM and CMMS databases store, in the case of centrifugal
pumps, for example, such “mundane” types of data as:
Tradespersons and
operators make these types of observations routinely. Sometimes, they take
approriate corrective action. Seldom, however, do the observation or the
failure mode[4] discovered
as a result of the observation, appear methodically as records in the
maintenance history database. Invaluable sources of reliability data such as these,
elude most maintenance information record keeping processes. Rather, those
historical records contain, mainly, descriptions of activities performed,
without reference to the conditions that inspired the actions. The McNalley
institute[5]
enumerates the possible causes of the elevated temperatures in the stuffing box
as:
Oil sampling will
indicate the following conditions that are a prelude to (or an indication of) serious
failure.
By monitoring pump suction and discharge pressure in concert with product flow and motor amperage, the following failure modes may be detected:
Most failure modes
occur randomly rather than by a wearing out of a component. For example, were
wear the dominant failure mode in bearings, they would, on the average, survive
50 or even 100 years. But, industrial bearings undergo accelerated wear
initiated by randomly occurring internal or environmental events, for example a
shock load, excessive heat, or water ingress causing lubricant failure. Bearing
life is, in addition, highly influenced by initial conditions, for example, how
it was stored and handled prior to installation, and how it was installed.
Randomness, being the
rule, rather than the exception, is it reasonable for us to assume that we will
usually find a monotonically rising trend of some monitored variable throughout
a component’s lifecycle, from which we may predict its failure? A more reasonable
approach to CBM would be to monitor the equipment and its operating context for
signs of conditions causing abnormal stress, that if allowed to persist, will
be destructive. Doctors monitor
cholestrol to determine whether our arteries are in danger of clogging. At a
certain level, they order a corrective action, usually a change in lifestyle.
Maintainers monitor oil levels to avoid the consequences of over- or
under-lubrication. Vibration analysts determine a condition of foundation
weakness, shaft misalignment or of rotor imbalance, that, if uncorrected, will
lead to serious failure.
These examples
illustrate that CBM is a viable maintenance strategy for avoiding failure
altogether. Yet CBM can also track and predict some failure modes from some
point in time after their random initiation to their ultimate functional
failure. It has been estimated[6]
that twenty precent of failure modes proceed in a predictable enough manner
following their detection (their potential failure), that a
repair action may be planned and executed prior to the loss of asset
functionality. A spalled bearing, for example, emits bearing tones that can be
detected automatically through processing of the spectral data assisted by
cepstrum analysis. The bearing may continue to operate adequately from this
point for several months prior to a failure that would render it
non-functional.
It seems, then from
the preceding, that there are two classes of CBM:
a. the detection of abnormal stresses[7]
on a system that, if uncorrected, will provoke a failure that has not yet
initiated, and
b. the detection of a failure that has already
begun, but has not progressed to the point where a required function has been
lost.
In either situation,
CBM is said to be effective, as long as the consequences of failure are reduced
(or avoided entirely) at an acceptable cost.
In the case of the first CBM class, and, pursuing our example of a
centrifugal pump, we might notice a rising trend in the temperature of the
stuffing box. If it gets too hot, we are going to have problem. We had better
correct the condition if we do not want to experience a premature (random) seal
failure. The McNally Institute describes the following seal failure modes that
will be provoked by excessive stuffing box temperatures:
A change in stuffing
box pressures can cause:
When monitoring temperature and pressure in the stuffing box area we will note these changes. Then, by applying our knowledge based rules, we will have adeqate time to react before seal failure occurs. Knowledge based rules form our CBM policy. Without a CBM policy, regardless of the number of sensors scattered throughout our process, the amount of data storage capacity, or the sophistication of the software “shell”, our CBM program will ultimately prove ineffective.
[1] Some typical organizations are provided in the Introduction on page 13
[2] Lubricating oil has a useful life of thirty years at thirty degrees centigrade (86°F) and its life is cut in half for every ten degree centigrade (18°F) increase in temperature. We may assume the temperature in the bearing is at least ten degrees centigrade (18°F) higher than the oil sump temperature. At elevated temperatures the oil will carbonize by first forming a "varnish like" film that will turn into a hard black coke at these higher temperatures. It is these formed solids that will destroy the bearing.
[3] For example, overheated stainless steel turns straw yellow, brown, blue and black at respective temperatures of approximately 400, 500, 600, and 650 degrees Celcius.
[4] The opposite side of the coin. The five knowledge elements (page 15) will neatly express these observations in a work order record of the CMMS.
[6] Moubray, J, Reliabity-centered Maintenance, 2nd Ed.
Butterworth 1999.
[7] We will learn in Chapter 10. page (113) that these two classes of CBM are characterized by two types of CM variables – 1) internal variables that reflect the state of the asset with respect to its deterioration due to a failure mode, and 2) external variables that measure the level of stress that influences the probability that a failure will occur. A CBM decision model, may incorporate either or both types of variables.